Introduction As we enter the 2026 spring selling season, the US housing market is defined by a paradoxical “stickiness.” J.P. Morgan Global Research recently confirmed that national home prices are projected to stall at 0% growth for the remainder of 2026. For buyers, this is a “welcoming development”—not because prices are crashing, but because they have finally stopped outrunning wage growth.
Mortgage Rates and the 6% Floor Despite early hopes for aggressive Fed cuts, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to stay elevated above 6% through 2026. While this is significantly higher than the 3% era of 2021, it is a vast improvement over the 7-8% peaks of previous years. For a $400,000 home, a move from 7% to 6% represents a monthly saving of roughly $375, or 15% in carrying costs, which is revitalizing purchase applications.
Inventory Surges in the Sun Belt The “lock-in effect” is slowly dissolving as life-changing events force long-term homeowners to list. Inventory levels are currently 20% higher than this time last year. However, this supply is not evenly distributed:
- The Sun Belt & West Coast: Overbuilt corridors are seeing a surplus of new construction, leading to significant builder incentives and price cuts.
- The Northeast: Supply remains tight, keeping prices resilient despite the national stagnation.
- Builder Strategy: In an “odd” historical reversal, the median resale home is currently more expensive than a newly built home, as builders use aggressive price cuts and financing buydowns to move standing stock